PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2019-2023 has been laid out a few weeks ago. The report highlights the momentous growth of tourism in Asia Pacific, which will reach USD 1.1 billion total revenue and close to 900 million international visitor arrivals in 2023. 40 destinations within Asia Pacific have been collectively predicted to show an average growth rate of 5.5 percent each year between 2018 and 2023.
What has emerged as an undisputed fact is the rise of Asia as the engine of global tourism’s growth. The continent will also be the strongest generator of foreign arrivals into Asia Pacific over the forecast period. Its relative share of arrivals will increase from 63.9 percent to over 66 percent between 2018 and 2023. Asia is also anticipated to remain the most important driver of global tourism growth, with an impressive 6.2 % growth in annual foreign visitor count. The Pacific region is expected to follow on the second spot with a 4.4 per cent growth. The American region may grow the slowest, notching a 3.1 per cent rise.
As a result of the strong average annual growth rate, Asia’s current share of foreign arrivals of almost 74 percent in 2018 is forecast to increase to over 76 percent by the end of 2023. Although total number of foreign arrivals to other destination regions will also increase, their shares of foreign arrivals will decrease within this period. The Americas region will decrease from 22.4 to 20 per cent, whereas the Pacific region will go down marginally, from 4 to 3.8 per cent.
Looking at trends, intra-regional travel flows will remain equally important for the Americas and Asia, with more than 75 per cent of the Americas witnessing foreign arrivals originating from the same region in 2023, just as in 2018. Similarly, intra-regional travel flows in Asia will remain steady, increasing from just below 94 percent in 2018 to just above 94 percent in 2023.
This differs from the Pacific destination, as over 50 percent of its 2018 inbound IVAs originated from Asia and will increase to around 57 percent by 2023. However, intra-regional flows within the Pacific region will remain significant at over 30 percent in 2023.
PATA’s Asia Pacific Visitor Forecast provides a reliable system to predict arrivals, visitor receipts, and departures across the Asia Pacific region, assisting destinations in effective development of strategies to maintain a competitive edge. Driven by the Hong Kong Polytechnic University’s Tourism Forecasting Unit’s proprietary travel forecasting model, the annual forecast also allows tourism industry stakeholders to review the industry’s performance and consider the prospects for the coming year and beyond.
(Source: Summary of the PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2019-2023)